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PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/ (POR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 GAAP EPS of $0.91 on net income of $100M and total revenues of $0.928B; results were driven by strong industrial demand (+16.4% YoY) from semiconductor and data center customers, offset by delivery mix and higher O&M, D&A, and interest expense .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global), EPS and revenue missed (EPS $0.91 vs $0.99*, revenue $0.928B vs $0.970B*), while EBITDA modestly beat ($309M vs $301M*) due to favorable power cost conditions; prior two quarters were broadly beats on EPS and revenue [*S&P Global].
  • Guidance reaffirmed: FY 2025 adjusted EPS $3.13–$3.33; O&M $795–$815M, D&A $550–$575M, cash from operations $900–$1,000M, capex trimmed slightly to $1,265M (from $1,270M) .
  • Key catalysts: wildfire policy progress (safety certificate legislation), expedited recovery for Seaside 200 MW battery, resource procurement milestones (2023/2025 RFP), and potential holding company formation to expand financing flexibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Industrial load growth of 16.4% YoY and overall load +4.6% YoY (4.4% weather-adjusted), reflecting robust demand from data centers and semiconductors .
  • Battery storage portfolio delivered meaningful system benefits; Seaside 200 MW storage is on track for mid-2025 service, supporting reliability and summer peaks. “We are advancing our regulatory strategy for Seaside in Q2… expedited option in the 2025 GRC order” .
  • Liquidity healthy at $948M with executed $310M first mortgage bonds and ATM program progress; reaffirmed long-term EPS and dividend growth 5%–7% .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS/revenue missed consensus for Q1 2025; CFO’s bridge highlights higher O&M timing, D&A, interest, and dilution from equity draws as headwinds .
  • Delivery composition (mix) lowered average price of deliveries, pressuring revenue despite volume growth .
  • Continued uncertainty around wildfire fund legislation and tariff impacts on resource procurement (including batteries), requiring adaptive RFP processes and potential cost management trade-offs .

Financial Results

Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.929 $0.928
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Billions)$0.767 $0.760
Income from Operations ($USD Billions)$0.162 $0.168
Net Income ($USD Billions)$0.109 $0.100
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.08 $0.91
EBIT Margin % (Operating Income / Revenues)17.4% (162/929) 18.1% (168/928)

Quarterly Trend (Actuals vs Consensus)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
EPS Actual ($)0.90*0.36*0.91*
EPS Consensus ($)0.87*0.35*0.99*
Revenue Actual ($USD Billions)$0.929*$0.824*$0.928*
Revenue Consensus ($USD Billions)$0.887*$0.663*$0.970*
EBITDA Actual ($USD Billions)$0.274*$0.218*$0.309*
EBITDA Consensus ($USD Billions)$0.273*$0.237*$0.301*
Note: Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Revenue Breakdown (Q1)

Revenue Category ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Residential$415 $429
Commercial$227 $242
Industrial$102 $127
Direct Access$6 $9
Wholesale$176 $100
Other Operating Revenues$13 $21
Total Revenues$929 $928

KPIs

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total Energy Deliveries (GWh ‘000s)7,752 7,807
Retail Energy Deliveries (GWh ‘000s)5,573 5,828
Wholesale Energy Deliveries (GWh ‘000s)2,179 1,979
Avg. Retail Customers937,826 952,105
Heating Degree-Days1,755 1,772
Sources: Generation (GWh ‘000s)4,537 4,691
Sources: Purchased Power (GWh ‘000s)3,073 2,852
Industrial Load Growth YoY—+16.4%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 14, 2025)Current Guidance (Apr 25, 2025)Change
Adjusted EPS ($)FY 2025$3.13–$3.33 $3.13–$3.33 Maintained
Energy Deliveries Growth (weather-adjusted)FY 2025+2.5%–3.5% +2.5%–3.5% Maintained
O&M Expense ($M)FY 2025$795–$815 $795–$815 Maintained
D&A ($M)FY 2025$550–$575 $550–$575 Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY 202515%–20% 15%–20% Maintained
Cash from Operations ($M)FY 2025$900–$1,000 $900–$1,000 Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY 2025$1,270 $1,265 Lowered
Avg. CWIP Balance ($M)FY 2025$575 $575 Maintained
Dividend per Share (Quarterly)Current$0.50 (declared Feb 12) $0.525 (declared Apr 18) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Industrial/data center loadRobust demand; improved power cost conditions Continued growth; resource planning and RFP advances 16.4% industrial growth; 4.6% total load YoY Strengthening
Battery storageRFP shortlist includes storage; planning Integrated 292 MW BESS; Clearwater wind online Seaside 200 MW in-service mid-2025; battery aids cost/reliability Expanding
Wildfire policy—2025 WMP filed; spend outlined Safety certificate progress; fund unresolved; >$120M 2025 mitigation plan Active policy engagement
Tariffs/supply chainSolar module tariff risk noted IRA/tariff monitoring Battery sourcing/tariff contingency in RFPs Managing uncertainty
Resource planning/RFP2023 RFP shortlist acknowledged 2023 RFP negotiations; 2025 RFP planned 2023 RFP finalize 2H25; 2025 IRP update this quarter On schedule
Financing/capital structure—ATM, debt; strong capex $310M FMBs; ATM adds; pursuing holdco for flexibility Broadening toolkit

Management Commentary

  • “We are laying the foundation for solid results, diligent cost management and strong execution in 2025 and beyond.” – Maria Pope, President & CEO .
  • “Q1 loads increased 4.6% overall… Industrial load increased 16.4%… these results are aligned with our 2025 plan.” – Joe Trpik, CFO .
  • “We plan to spend over $120 million on wildfire mitigation… legislation to establish a safety certificate process is advancing.” – Maria Pope .
  • “Seaside battery remains on track to come in service at the end of June… we will seek recovery under expedited options in the 2025 GRC order.” – Joe Trpik .
  • “Expanding our financing flexibility remains a priority… pursuing updates to our structure, including a holding company formation.” – Joe Trpik .

Q&A Highlights

  • Wildfire legislation: Progress on safety certificates; catastrophic wildfire fund still debated; management expects multi-session process to resolve liability framework .
  • RFPs/tariffs: Pricing and tariff risks contemplated within adaptable RFP processes; battery sourcing may face tariffs; aim to execute 2H25 .
  • Data center cost structures: Focus on minimum guarantees and avoiding cross-subsidization; transmission build-out driven by large customers; exploring direct procurement programs and VPP integration .
  • Financing/ATM and equity layer: ~$100M issued under ATM YTD; plan remains ~$300M for 2025; pursuing 50/50 capital structure without relying on holdco .
  • Seaside expedited recovery case: Filing expected soon under 2025 GRC order; mechanism clarifies when/how costs are recovered .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: EPS $0.91 vs $0.99 consensus (miss*); revenue $0.928B vs $0.970B (miss*); EBITDA $0.309B vs $0.301B (beat*) [*S&P Global].
  • Prior two quarters: Q3 2024 EPS $0.90 vs $0.87 (beat*), revenue $0.929B vs $0.887B (beat*); Q4 2024 EPS $0.36 vs $0.35 (beat*), revenue $0.824B vs $0.663B (beat*) [*S&P Global].
  • Expect near-term estimate adjustments: Slight revenue/EPS trimming for Q2 on mix/O&M timing; EBITDA resilient given favorable power costs and storage integration .
    Note: Values marked * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Load-driven growth intact: Data center and semiconductor demand is accelerating volumes; management reaffirmed 2025 load growth and adjusted EPS guidance .
  • Temporary EPS pressure: Delivery mix and cost timing (O&M/D&A/interest) weighed on Q1 EPS; dilution from equity draws also impacted results .
  • Storage as a cost lever: Battery portfolio increasingly offsets power cost volatility; Seaside 200 MW likely a positive summer reliability/cost catalyst .
  • Policy watch: Progress on wildfire safety certification is constructive; a fund/liability framework remains the swing factor for long-term cost of capital and recoveries .
  • Financing optionality: Healthy liquidity, executed debt, ATM capacity, and potential holdco formation provide flexibility to fund capex and maintain targeted 50/50 capital structure .
  • Procurement milestones: 2023 RFP contract finalization targeted for 2H 2025; 2025 IRP update due this quarter—key touchpoints for resource mix and tariff impacts .
  • Dividend support: Quarterly dividend raised to $0.525; long-term payout ratio target 60–70% reinforces distribution stability amid growth investments .